Venezuela After Maduro: Scenarios, Risks, and Implications for Colombia
Over the past 27 years, Venezuela has undergone a deep political, economic, and social transformation shaped by the Chavista Revolution, the collapse of its oil-dependent economy, and major changes in its internal stability and relationship with the United States.
This process reached a critical turning point on January 3, 2026, with the capture of Nicolás Maduro Moros, who had claimed a third presidential term in 2024 amid widespread allegations of electoral fraud and the persecution of political opposition leaders. Following months of escalating tensions and a U.S.-led military operation, American forces entered Venezuela with limited resistance and detained Maduro and his wife to face trial in New York, triggering an unprecedented international controversy.
These events have intensified the global debate over sovereignty, foreign intervention, and the future political direction of Latin America. Venezuela’s crisis continues to have direct regional consequences—particularly for Colombia—affecting migration, security, trade, and geopolitics. Join us in this special current affairs edition as we analyze the background, recent developments, and what lies ahead for the region.
The intervention in Venezuela that enabled the extraction of Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, involved more than 200 U.S. troops and a large-scale aerial deployment of over 150 military aircraft. The operation, ordered by President Donald Trump from his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, included simultaneous strikes against 10 military targets in Caracas, Charallave, La Guaira, Higuerote, and Maracay. According to official figures, the operation resulted in more than 195 deaths, including 32 Cuban security agents, 47 Venezuelan military personnel, and at least two civilians, as well as 140 wounded and over 60 missing. The United States reported no fatalities, with only seven service members injured.
The Rise and Fall of the Chavista Revolution: From Hugo Chávez to Nicolás Maduro
The Chavista Revolution emerged in the late 1990s with the rise to power of Hugo Chávez, who promoted a profound transformation of Venezuela’s political and economic system based on a socialist model, strong state control, and the concentration of power. His government reshaped state institutions and relied heavily on oil revenues to sustain social programs and political support.
Following Chávez’s death in 2013, Nicolás Maduro assumed the presidency and continued the Chavista project, but his tenure was marked by a severe economic collapse. Between 2013 and 2024, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation, the breakdown of key industries—especially oil—widespread shortages, and a dramatic contraction of the economy, leading to rising poverty and the mass emigration of millions of Venezuelans.
As social unrest grew, protests were violently repressed and opposition leaders were persecuted. In the 2024 election, Nicolás Maduro declared himself the winner despite widespread fraud allegations, while the opposition led by María Corina Machado — who was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts to promote democracy — presented records indicating that Edmundo González was the true winner with more than 70% of the vote. After more than 13 years in power amid a deep political and social crisis that drove millions to emigrate, Maduro’s rule was challenged, culminating in his arrest and transfer to the United States to face justice on January 3, 2026
From “Saudi Venezuela” to the collapse under Maduro
Before Chavismo, Venezuela was often compared to “Saudi Venezuela” because its vast oil wealth once made it one of the richest countries in Latin America, with production above 3 million barrels per day and high per‑capita income. However, decades of institutional deterioration, corruption, and mismanagement of the state oil company PDVSA drastically reduced its productive capacity, with output falling sharply as technical expertise and investment declined. Despite holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves, the economy contracted severely, and widespread shortages, hyperinflation, and poverty replaced the prosperity the country once enjoyed.
Between 2015 and 2020, oil production fell from nearly 3.7 million barrels per day to just a fraction of that figure, dramatically reducing state revenues and increasing dependence on imports. This economic implosion triggered the largest humanitarian crisis in the Western Hemisphere in decades, with millions of Venezuelans emigrating in search of better living conditions.
Why did the United States capture Nicolás Maduro?
The capture of Maduro is a consequence of more than 27 years of growing distance between the governments of Caracas and Washington. Historically, Venezuela was once the United States’ most reliable ally and a secure oil supplier, but with the rise of Chávez and later Maduro, Venezuela aligned itself with countries such as Cuba, China, North Korea, Iran, Nicaragua, and Russia, challenging U.S. influence in the region. These shifts in foreign policy helped fuel long‑standing tensions between the two nations.
Successive U.S. administrations — including those of Clinton, Bush, Obama, Biden, and Trump — maintained steady pressure on Caracas, supporting various opposition leaders against the Chavista government. In 2002, the United States was perceived by many in Venezuela as having supported a short‑lived coup against Hugo Chávez, and in 2019 the Trump administration recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as interim president in an effort to challenge Maduro’s legitimacy.
By 2025, tensions escalated further as the U.S. designated groups linked to Maduro’s government as terrorist organizations amid broader sanctions and regional pressure, intensifying confrontation. Critics viewed these moves as part of a broader geopolitical strategy to counter Maduro’s influence and restore U.S. sway in the hemisphere.
From a Friend of the United States to Its Most Dangerous Adversary
We must understand that in Venezuela, Chavismo became not only an authoritarian government but also operates as an international criminal organization. On one hand, it finances radical leftist movements around the world, buys allies, and manipulates elections. Thanks to oil resources, Chavismo was able to export the Revolution and send criminal gangs from the Tren de Aragua around the world to delegitimize the opposition diaspora.
At the same time, it undermined democratic freedoms and clung to power. The United States knew that the opposition could not overthrow the government by any means, since Chavismo used weapons to repress opponents. According to human rights organizations in Venezuela, more than 10,000 extrajudicial executions have been carried out, and there are over a thousand political prisoners. In this way, the only possible option was a United States intervention to depose the tyrant.
Recently, Hugo Carvajal, a former head of Venezuelan intelligence and convicted in the United States for narco-terrorism offenses, revealed that the Chavista regime had devised a plan to harm the United States with the support of Cuba. The plan reportedly included exporting the revolution through espionage, financing criminal and terrorist groups, facilitating the trafficking of illegal drugs, and even attempting to manipulate elections.
Given the criminal nature of the Nicolás Maduro regime and the massive fraud in the 2024 elections, the only possible option was a United States intervention to remove the tyrant, which triggered a constitutional crisis in Venezuela, including the declaration of a state of internal commotion, the temporary suspension of guarantees, and extraordinary measures. After the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces during a military operation, the Venezuelan Supreme Court of Justice, allied with the Chavista leadership, ordered Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to assume the role of acting president, generating internal tensions and a complex environment of political transition
Delcy Rodríguez is a lawyer and is 56 years old. On January 5, 2025, she was sworn in as Interim President of Venezuela before the National Assembly by her own brother, Jorge Rodríguez, who is President of the Legislative Power. She is the daughter of Jorge Antonio Rodríguez, a leftist leader and guerrilla fighter who died in prison after being accused of kidnapping the American businessman William Niehous, President of Owens-Illinois.
Start of the transition process in Venezuela: Chavismo seeks to survive
With Maduro detained and prosecuted in the United States, Venezuela finds itself in an uncertain transition phase. President Donald Trump has said that Delcy Rodríguez has pledged to collaborate unconditionally to prevent new attacks, so the United States is in command of Venezuela for an indefinite period.
Chavismo faces an existential crisis, with the division of power into three sectors, first there are the Rodríguez brothers, where, on the one hand, Delcy, the current president, and her brother Jorge, President of Congress, operate, both of whom manage the relationship and Guardianship with the United States government.
On the other hand, there is Diosdado Cabello, the Minister of the Interior who controls paramilitary groups and a good part of radical Chavismo. Finally, there is the Minister of Defense, Vladimir Padrino López, who presents a rather diminished leadership, after the attacks by the United States, where the armed forces he leads could not resist and prevent the capture of Maduro.
These antagonistic groups within Chavismo claim to be united in order to maintain political power at any cost. Before their followers, they demand the return of Maduro, while at the same time promptly attending to requests from the U.S. government. Recently, Venezuela sent 50 millions barrels of oil to the United States. In exchange, Chavismo has promised to open up to foreign investment and purchase U.S. products with the money obtained from oil sales. In this way, they hope to buy time and remain in power, avoiding free elections where they know the opposition would triumph.
Finally, opposition leader María Corina Machado has demanded the release of all political prisoners and insists that the popular will—ignored by Maduro in the May 2024 elections—be respected, or that free elections be called to enable a genuine transition to democracy in the country.
U.S. Roadmap: Stabilization, Recovery, and Transition in Venezuela
United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced that Venezuela’s transition will involve at least three phases. First, the institutional stabilization of the country to avoid anarchy and violence, which would imply sending United States troops permanently to Venezuela, in addition to the dismantling of activities against the interests of the United States, this includes breaking ties with countries such as Cuba, North Korea, Iran, Nicaragua, Russia, clear enemies of the United States, then the second phase includes economic reconstruction and recovery, giving full access to United States companies to invest in Venezuela to increase oil production and finally the third phase the calling of democratic elections.
Opportunities of Venezuela’s Transition: Signs That Something Is Happening
Despite ongoing tensions and challenges, Venezuela’s transition opens significant opportunities for the country and the region if a structural change from the current model is achieved. First, dismantling the Chavista economic system is key, as it could allow Venezuela to receive billions of dollars in international investment under regulations that respect private property and allow repatriation of profits. Venezuela not only has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, estimated at about 303 billion barrels, but also important deposits of iron, gold, bauxite and other minerals, as well as significant hydroelectric and gas potential, and advantages in tourism, fishing, agriculture, and commerce. Venezuela’s interim leadership has discussed oil sector reforms that would open the industry to foreign and private investors, a move that would reverse decades‑long state monopoly and attract outside capital to revitalize production.
U.S. President Donald Trump has urged major American oil companies such as Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, Shell, Chevron to invest in rebuilding Venezuela’s infrastructure to rapidly increase production and, at the same time, secure management of Venezuelan oil, reduce fuel prices through higher output, and shift market access. Market reactions have shown rising share prices for U.S. energy firms on expectations of future investment and access to Venezuela’s reserves.
In the political sphere, a process of gradual release of political prisoners has begun, and interim authorities have announced national reconciliation efforts between former Chavista supporters and opposition sectors. So far, there has been no formal announcement of new free and democratic elections, where Chavismo might seek to remain in power despite diminished popular support. The central questions remain: Can Delcy Rodríguez secure Donald Trump’s support to continue as interim president of Venezuela?. Will the democratic opposition allow Chavismo to continue governing despite its reduced base of support?
In any case, a future electoral process would require institutional reforms to ensure transparency, effective international observation, and inclusion of all political forces, including those previously excluded. Rebuilding the electoral system could become a symbol of national reconciliation and an essential condition for international recognition of the new government. For Venezuelans abroad, such elections could represent the hope of returning to a homeland with greater democratic legitimacy.
Hope for Venezuela’s Future in the Years Ahead
Venezuela’s political and economic evolution in the coming years will depend on multiple factors, including the ability of its political elites to negotiate peaceful transitions between a weakened Chavismo and an opposition legitimized by popular support, the opening to foreign investment, and the relationship with international actors such as the United States, which has consolidated its military power following the January 3, 2026 incursion into Venezuela and is emerging as a decisive guarantor of the country’s transition process.
While the path toward deep transformation may be difficult and prolonged, Donald Trump will need to resolve the Venezuelan transition before the end of his term in the White House. The U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026 represent a critical challenge, as their outcome will determine his ability to retain the political support necessary to advance his strategy toward Venezuela. In a favorable scenario, Venezuela could move forward with deep reforms during this year and call elections in 2027 to consolidate a definitive change in leadership; however, a defeat in those elections could strengthen Democrats—natural allies of Chavismo—and complicate Trump’s plans.
In an alternative scenario, Chavismo could adapt into a more pragmatic regime and remain in power until the completion of the contested third constitutional term in 2031, seeking to buy time through significant concessions to opposition sectors in order to preserve the status quo. In either case, restoring pre-Chavista levels of prosperity would likely require years of coordinated efforts, though if these changes are achieved peacefully, Venezuela could regain a relevant position among the key nations of the Americas.
Signs of Change in Venezuela
Concrete gestures of political and economic shift are becoming evident. Delcy Rodríguez has moved toward active cooperation with the United States, which now controls part of Venezuela’s oil business and administers funds allocated to food, medicine, and improvements to the electrical system. The reopening of the U.S. Embassy after six years was announced, along with high-level meetings on diplomatic and security matters.
On the domestic front, the government released approximately 600 political prisoners, launched a Program for Coexistence and Peace, and promoted a reform of the Hydrocarbons Law that opens the sector to foreign investment. The removal of Alex Saab reinforces the shift in economic policy. At the regional level, President Trump announced the suspension of Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba, while Venezuela reopens its airspace and reactivates tourism.
Advantages for Colombia of a Prosperous and Democratic Venezuela
Colombia is one of the countries most affected by the Venezuelan crisis due to its long border and the flow of migrants. A stable Venezuela could ease pressure on public services, improve border security, and strengthen bilateral cooperation in trade and development. In addition, the reactivation of commercial exchange—which at its peak represented more than USD 7 billion per year for Colombia—would be highly beneficial.
Security would improve with the reduction of illicit activities in border areas with Venezuela, where guerrilla groups and drug trafficking organizations established safe havens with the acquiescence of the Chavista regime. Clearly, a calmer political climate in Venezuela would also allow Colombia to concentrate internal resources on other social and economic challenges, strengthening its own growth and stability.
Colombia currently hosts nearly three million Venezuelan migrants. A positive change in Venezuela could lead to the return of a large portion of the Venezuelan diaspora to their homeland; if the transition fails, the opposite effect could occur, with renewed migration toward Colombia.
Conclusions
Recent history in Venezuela reflects a country deeply affected by prolonged crises and a devastated economy. Under Nicolás Maduro’s long rule, Venezuela suffered one of the most severe economic collapses in modern Latin American history, marked by sharp GDP contraction, hyperinflation, and widespread hardship that triggered a massive migration outflow.
The capture of Maduro and the subsequent leadership change have opened an uncertain but potentially transformative chapter. While the path toward democratic elections and economic reconstruction will be long and require sustained cooperation from domestic and international actors, this moment presents both risks and opportunities for Venezuela and the wider region—particularly Colombia—and offers a historic chance to move beyond decades of stagnation and redefine Venezuela’s role in Latin America.
Questions, comments? Contact me today and I will be happy to discuss any of these issues further with you.
